Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s turbulent day in the Capitol reached a crescendo as he departed before 5 p.m., leaving behind a restless House GOP facing a cascade of challenges. The day witnessed a series of setbacks, casting a shadow over Republican leaders who were determined to showcase their short-term funding plan as a consensus triumph between staunch conservatives and more centrist members.
However, their touted deal encountered resistance from at least a dozen members who remained resolute in their opposition. This leads to a pressing question: how many of these dissenting voices can GOP leadership sway?
The breakdown of House GOP holdouts reveals three distinct categories:
The Maybe-Gettables: Within this group are House Republicans who have demonstrated a willingness to yield when the pressure mounts or those who prefer to stay on the good side of their leaders. While their support is not guaranteed, they remain persuadable. Figures like Representative Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), who, despite her public criticism of the spending deal, ultimately voted in favor, and Representative Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), who may currently oppose the spending deal but previously provided crucial support to the speaker, fall into this category.
The Wild Cards: Representatives Ken Buck (R-Colo.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), who voted to block the defense bill, belong to this enigmatic group. Norman’s membership in the Rules Committee renders his stance pivotal, potentially influencing McCarthy’s efforts to resurrect the spending deal. Additionally, Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a frequent ally of McCarthy, appears less amenable to a short-term spending deal.
The Never-Kevins: Members of this faction, including Representatives Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Eli Crane (R-Texas), Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), and Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), have historically resisted aligning with McCarthy. Gaetz and Crane, both with strong military ties, voted for the defense bill rule, while Biggs and Rosendale voted against it. However, converting this staunch conservative group remains a formidable challenge for GOP leaders.
Tensions within the Republican ranks continue to mount, with Representative Mike Simpson (R-Idaho) expressing frustration at being dictated to by a handful of holdouts. Rules Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) suggested the possibility of reviving the debate on the defense spending bill and even attempting to open discourse on the beleaguered stopgap spending bill. The House appears trapped in a cycle of uncertainty.
While optimism persists among some, notably Representative Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), the chief of the GOP’s more centrist Main Street Caucus, until McCarthy can secure the support of one or more holdout factions or strike a deal with Democrats, the House remains in a state of limbo. Furthermore, even if the short-term plan concocted by Main Street and Freedom Caucus members miraculously secures passage in the House, it faces certain death in the Democratic Senate.
Wednesday promises further political drama in the Senate, where a vote may be on the horizon to overcome conservative resistance to a comprehensive three-part spending bill that had stalled in recent days. The stage is set for a high-stakes showdown, with the future of government funding hanging in the balance.
