Today marks a pivotal moment, a high-stakes test that House Republicans cannot afford to flunk, following a fortnight fraught with spending setbacks. However, their chosen route forward, navigating through individual spending bills, does little to steer them clear of the looming government shutdown scheduled for October 1st.
The stage is set for a House vote on a rule, a critical procedural maneuver, designed to pave the way for action on fiscal year 2024 appropriations bills. Within this legislative mix lie the Defense, Homeland Security, State-Foreign Operations, and Agriculture-FDA spending bills. It’s worth noting that hardline conservatives delivered two decisive blows to similar rules in the past week, setting up a daunting challenge for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. To succeed, he must win over at least a faction of the five Republican defectors, a task that requires political finesse. Notably, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has already declared herself a resolute “no” on the rule. The positions of the other defectors—Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Eli Crane (Ariz.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.), and Dan Bishop (N.C.)—remain a suspenseful mystery.
This audacious decision to advance individual spending bills, albeit late in the game, reflects McCarthy’s unwavering commitment to his pledge of passing all 12 spending bills methodically, one by one. Nevertheless, even if they succeed in surmounting the rule and bringing the spending bills to the floor, the outcome of the vote remains shrouded in uncertainty. Moreover, their chances in the Senate, controlled by Democrats, are virtually nonexistent.
As a symbol of McCarthy’s undying optimism, one can’t help but notice the mock-ups circulating, featuring a challenge coin emblazoned with the rallying cry, “never give up.”
Meanwhile, in the Senate, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer initiated a series of moves late last week, setting the stage for a legislative shell capable of hosting a stopgap spending bill. The momentum culminates in a crucial vote scheduled for Tuesday night, centered around the House’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) bill—essentially a double play, given that FAA authorizations are set to expire on October 1st as well.
Discussions surrounding the specifics of this funding patch are ongoing, with intense negotiations focused on its duration and content. Senate staff toiled into the late hours of Monday night, laboring to produce the text early this week.
This Senate-crafted spending solution must deftly navigate between appeasing conservative elements to prevent potential holdups via unanimous consent agreements and appeasing House Republicans locked in a heated internal struggle. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has boldly pledged to obstruct any bill containing additional Ukraine aid, while Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) vehemently demands a standalone vote on disaster aid.
The upshot could be a “clean” funding patch, foreshadowing the scenario that House Republicans have dreaded—a Senate-engineered spending bill thrust upon them.
In this tumultuous legislative arena, every move counts, and every decision carries immense ramifications. As the drama unfolds, the stakes could not be higher, and the political theater is set for a gripping showdown.
