Buckle up, because the countdown to chaos is on! If Washington succumbs to the looming government shutdown threat next month, it won’t just be a mere inconvenience; it’s a crisis that’s bound to reverberate far and wide, leaving no one unscathed!
The federal government isn’t just about bureaucrats and red tape; it’s a crucial player in the grand tapestry of our nation. From groundbreaking medical research to ensuring food access for low-income families, from funding essential construction projects to preserving our national priorities, it’s the tireless toil of these soon-to-be furloughed workers that keeps the gears of our nation turning. Sending them home, and most cruelly, without pay, isn’t just a setback—it’s a time bomb set to detonate the hard-won gains of the Biden administration after the regulatory rollercoaster of the Trump era.
But hold onto your hats because the chaos doesn’t stop there! Congress hasn’t managed to pass a single one of the 12 annual appropriations measures this year. If a stopgap spending bill can’t be wrestled from the clutches of the Capitol’s morass, just about every federal agency will feel the pain.
The real damage will depend on whether this shutdown lasts for just a few days or stretches into Halloween. Remember the five-week partial shutdown in 2018-19? The Congressional Budget Office estimated that it cost the U.S. economy a jaw-dropping $3 billion even after everything was switched back on!
While some essentials like Social Security checks and mail delivery will continue, millions will feel the financial pinch. Federal workers may eventually get their back pay, but what about those whose businesses depend on Uncle Sam? States will be forced to tap into their own coffers to replace lost federal funds, and vital infrastructure projects could be left hanging in the balance.
HEALTH
The Department of Health and Human Services, a cornerstone of healthcare, is poised to furlough a staggering 42 percent of its workforce if the government grinds to a halt. But fear not, essential services like Medicare and Medicaid will continue unabated. Clinical trials will persevere, and the Obamacare exchanges will remain open, though with a skeleton crew. HHS agencies have tapped emergency funds to keep vital programs, like Covid-19 vaccine development, chugging along.
But don’t breathe easy just yet! A prolonged shutdown could throw Medicaid into disarray, as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services would run out of funding by the end of the calendar year. Even the administration’s Medicare drug pricing negotiations could grind to a halt, leaving the battle against rising drug costs in limbo.
During the 2013 shutdown, the National Institutes of Health briefly slammed the door on new clinical trials and patient enrollments. States were forced to dip into their own pockets to keep welfare programs afloat. And October and November are crunch time for research funding, adding a tantalizing layer of uncertainty to the mix.
FOOD
Hold on to your dinner plates, because the FDA, guardian of 80 percent of the U.S. food supply, could see its safety work jeopardized. Proactive inspections could go out the window, leaving the food system exposed to potential risks. While the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program would remain operational, the last shutdown nearly ran it dry, threatening benefits for 40 million people!
And here’s where it gets even more harrowing: nearly 7 million recipients of supplemental food aid, including pregnant and postpartum individuals, and their children could lose access to the Women, Infants, and Children program. A “rolling crisis” could unfold as state programs run dry, forcing them to rely on carryover funds or their own state budgets.
SCHOOLS
Education takes a hit too! While K-12 schools are largely funded locally, programs like Head Start and free and reduced lunch programs would grind to a halt. During the 2018-19 shutdown, school leaders scrambled to figure out how to fund meals for children without federal checks. Thousands of kids, their parents furloughed, suddenly became eligible for these meals.
And don’t forget the Impact Aid program, which supports school districts on military bases, Native American reservations, and other federal lands. Funds from this program could be at risk if the shutdown drags on, adding a layer of complexity to the education crisis.
ENERGY
Energy enthusiasts, brace yourselves! President Joe Biden’s energy and climate agenda, Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act, and even some top Republican priorities could be casualties of a shutdown. Regulatory delays could translate into setbacks for investment, hiring, and key initiatives like offshore oil and natural gas drilling. Regulations could also become vulnerable to reversals in the next Congress if Republicans sweep the 2024 elections.
Remember the $52.7 billion in subsidies for the domestic microchip industry? A shutdown would freeze those funds and impede broadband grant coordination. A delay in funding could derail bipartisan efforts to bring microchip manufacturing back to U.S. shores, serving as a check on China’s tech ambitions.
TAX, FINANCE, AND HOUSING
The Treasury Department may dodge a shutdown thanks to new funds from the Inflation Reduction Act. The IRS, however, is still shrouded in uncertainty. The IRS contingency plan remains a mystery, with initial indications of employees continuing to work and be paid giving way to rumors of looming furloughs.
Wall Street regulators anticipate a standstill in rulemaking and enforcement, with more than 90 percent of staff likely to be furloughed. Sweeping new regulations from the Securities and Exchange Commission, including climate risk reporting and short seller disclosures, could be delayed, impacting corporate America.
When it comes to housing, most Department of Housing and Urban Development staff will be sent home, potentially disrupting public housing operations, housing choice voucher subsidies, and FHA-insured loans. A protracted shutdown could spell a decline in home sales
