Hold onto your seats, folks, because we’re in the midst of political turbulence like never before! Speaker Kevin McCarthy is standing at the crossroads of history as a government shutdown looms large, and the only way out is to dance with the Democrats. But here’s the twist – he’s refusing to take that hand!
In the most chaotic stretch of his speakership, McCarthy has steered clear of reaching across the aisle, not even making a single call to the opposing party to find a way to keep the government running.
Instead, he and his team are in a race against time this weekend, frantically slashing their own party’s spending bills to appease a handful of hard-liners who are poised to stage a revolt. Brace yourselves, because votes on these revised bills are expected on Tuesday, just four days shy of the September 30 shutdown deadline. But even if they pass, Congress will remain stranded in a sea of uncertainty.
McCarthy’s game plan remains unaltered; he aims to present a GOP opening gambit to the Democratic Senate while quelling a rebellion from the right-wing faction within his own party, just enough to hold onto his speakership until Democrats inevitably enter the negotiations. After his initial two attempts at a short-term spending fix fell short, McCarthy is now trying to push through full-year bills, a move met with skepticism by some of his own allies. They fear that as the shutdown deadline approaches, this strategy could crumble, adding another layer of humiliation to the party’s plight.
Representative Steve Womack (R-Ark.) weighed in on this high-stakes chess match, emphasizing that the next move in the House won’t be the final answer. He predicts that the Senate will step into the fray, offering a solution that may not align with the House’s preferences, and the Speaker will face a daunting decision.
But here’s where the plot thickens for McCarthy: pressure is mounting from his Senate allies who are now calling for a vote on legislation to automatically impose stopgap spending patches, aiming to permanently avert government shutdowns.
The House GOP, however, has taken a different route, reviving partisan spending bills that do little to prevent millions of U.S. workers, including the military and border patrol agents, from working without pay in the near future. Simultaneously, party leadership is attempting, albeit unsuccessfully so far, to rally Republicans behind a short-term conservative spending bill before October 1.
McCarthy’s allies acknowledge the shifting political landscape. According to Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), the timing isn’t right for questions about whether a bipartisan bill could pass in the final 48 hours before a shutdown. Yet, McCarthy understands that ultimately, he must strike a spending deal with the White House to avert a government closure. However, this decision could spell the end of his speakership, considering the limited political capital he has at his disposal.
Hard-liners like Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and Dan Bishop (R-N.C.) have made it abundantly clear that they won’t assist the Speaker in resolving the spending crisis. Moreover, they are the most likely to trigger the first vote of no-confidence against a party leader in 113 years.
Representative Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) cautioned against discussions about the speakership at this stage, warning that working with Democrats on funding the government would be akin to switching sides. He predicted a shutdown, emphasizing the identity of the Republican Party.
As the showdown escalates, tensions are rising within the Republican camp, with some members from districts won by President Joe Biden threatening to work with Democrats to force a shutdown-averting measure onto the floor. The stakes are high for House Republicans, with just nine months of power under their belts and an election looming on the horizon where the fate of their majority rests on 18 incumbents in districts friendly to Biden.
Frustration is boiling over among these Biden-district Republicans, as they grapple with their conservative colleagues. They see compromise as a popular solution to end the crisis. On the other hand, centrists and rank-and-file Republicans are divided, with some attempting to rein in colleagues who are leaning towards working with Democrats.
On the Democratic side, centrist Democrats have initiated backchannel discussions with McCarthy allies to draft a compromise spending measure. They are willing to assist, but they expect concessions in return.
McCarthy outlined his plans for the House’s next steps, including votes on leaner individual spending bills that have little chance of becoming law. He still aims to push through a Republican short-term funding bill, cautioning hard-liners that a shutdown victory for the party is unlikely.
However, McCarthy is living under the shadow of a motion to vacate, a potential forced vote to end his leadership. Talk of moderate Republicans collaborating with Democrats is fueling interest in this threat among conservatives, with outside groups discussing the circumstances under which they would push conservatives to force that vote. Even conservatives working with McCarthy to prevent a shutdown, like Rep.
